South African grape and wine exporters are on edge as fresh tariff measures proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump threaten to derail one of the country’s most important agricultural trade relationships. The table grape and wine industries, both of which have invested heavily in expanding into the U.S. market, warn of devastating consequences if a 31% reciprocal tariff is imposed.
According to a report by SABC News, South Africa currently holds a 28% share of the U.S. table grape market. However, the proposed tariffs could wipe out profitability for exporters. Gabriel Viljoen, chairperson of the Oranje River Producers Association, stressed that the industry would no longer be able to operate sustainably under such conditions. “If the tariff that President Trump is putting on the table is 31%, it’s not going to be economically viable for us,” Viljoen warned.
The wine sector is equally exposed. Cornelius Coetzee, South Africa country director at Verto, told Daily Investor that the U.S. is a critical growth market, helping diversify exports beyond Europe and Asia. Coetzee noted that foreign exchange volatility, especially a 15% appreciation in the British pound, global protectionist trends, and increased operational costs for imports like barrels and bottling materials are compounding the pressure.
Trump initially proposed tariffs on products from 60 countries — including South Africa — as part of his broader reciprocal tariff policy, but implementation has been delayed for 90 days, with a temporary 10% duty in place. Still, industry leaders fear long-term cost escalation.
Adding to the challenge, the South African government increased excise duties in its 2025/26 fiscal plan. The levy on unfortified wine rose by 6.75% to R5.95/litre, and fortified wine now attracts R10.04/litre, potentially pushing price-sensitive consumers towards the illicit alcohol market.
As the industry braces for uncertainty, both the public and private sectors may need to reassess market strategies, tax policies, and trade negotiations to protect export earnings and jobs in a key pillar of South Africa’s agricultural economy.