South Africa’s citrus industry is projecting export volumes of 171.1 million cartons (15kg) for the 2025 season, marking a 3.6% increase over last year’s final figures, according to the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA).
“We are cautiously optimistic about the season,” said Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the CGA, highlighting the industry’s continued growth despite mounting pressures. “The solid growth trajectory the industry has been on has held, so far. But serious threats remain.”
Tariff turmoil threatens US market access
Among the most pressing concerns is a looming 30% tariff on citrus exports to the US, which could come into effect in under three months if no trade agreement or exemption is reached. While the US accounts for just 4% to 6% of South Africa’s citrus exports, it remains a critical market for Western Cape towns like Citrusdal, where livelihoods depend heavily on exports.
Breakdown of 2025 mandarin forecast
The 2025 estimates were finalised after late mandarin figures were added to earlier projections released in March. The latest numbers show significant gains in certain mandarin varieties:
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Nadorcott/Tango: 25.7 million cartons (up from 23.3 million in 2024)
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Other late mandarins: 3.2 million cartons (up from 2.7 million)
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Leanri: 2.1 million cartons (slightly down from 2.2 million)
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Orri: 2.1 million cartons (unchanged)
Key citrus category projections
Earlier CGA estimates for other citrus types also showed stable or positive growth:
| Citrus Type | 2025 Estimate (millions) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Lemons | 32.9 | -5% |
| Navel Oranges | 26.1 | +5% |
| Valencia Oranges | 52.0 | +6% |
| Grapefruit (17kg) | 13.5 | +6% |
| Satsuma Mandarins | 1.8 | 0% |
| Nova Mandarins | 4.5 | +2% |
| Clementines | 5.4 | +10% |
Dr Ntshabele noted strong early-season performance, particularly in lemons and grapefruit, with lemon prices looking favourable and grapefruit exports already 55% higher than this time last year.
Structural challenges threaten future growth
Paul Hardman, CGA’s COO, cautioned that the industry’s momentum hinges on resolving several structural issues. These include port inefficiencies, international tariff barriers, and restricted access to key markets like the European Union, which imposes strict phytosanitary regulations.
“If we can address these challenges, the citrus success story will continue,” said Hardman. He added that with supportive conditions, the industry could generate 100,000 new jobs by 2032 due to increased production from new plantings.